Thank you to all the constituents who took the time to complete my survey on Brexit and Other Issues which is extremely useful.
1,525 High Peak residents completed the survey online and in paper form between 8th November and 7th December 2018. Names and postcodes were provided and checked. Non-constituents were excluded and any individual that had completed more than once, the most recent version was used.
How would you be most likely to vote if there was a vote on our deal to leave the EU?
85% would vote to Remain in the EU
5% would vote to accept the Prime Minister’s Deal
10% would vote to leave with No Deal
How did you vote in the 2016 Referendum?
82% voted Remain
14% voted Leave
4% did not vote (Usually as they had been under 18 at the time)
How have votes changed since 2016?
Leave Voters: 62% would vote to leave with No Deal
22% would vote to accept the Deal
16% would now vote to Remain in the EU
Remain voters: 96% would still vote to Remain in the EU
2% would vote to accept the Deal
2% would vote to leave with No Deal
Did not Vote: 87% would vote to Remain in the EU
11% would vote to Leave with No Deal
2% would vote to accept the Deal
Overall, this represents a 6.5% swing to Remain in High Peak, due to more Leave voters now wishing to Remain in the EU now the consequences of leaving are more clear, and young people making up approximately 3% of the electorate becoming entitled to vote since 2016.
This is very similar to the 54% to 56% in favour of Remain that has been found in recent national polls that analysed High Peak: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/uk-poll-results/
In 2016, 50.5% of High Peak voted to leave the EU whereas 49.5% voted to remain.
A far higher proportion of Remain voters completed the survey than Leave voters, largely as there appeared to be more concern about the details of the Brexit deal among Remain voters, who shared the survey more widely than Leave voters.
Most responses are analysed separately for Leave and Remain supporters, so the representativeness of the sample is not a problem, but for those where responses are combined I have weighted the answers for the proportions voting Leave and Remain in the referendum, to produce a ‘Balanced Total’ as is usual in polling analysis.
Balanced Result: How would you be most likely to vote if there was a vote on our deal to leave the EU?
If results of this survey are balanced between the proportions who voted to Leave or Remain in 2016, they are as follows:
56% would vote to Remain in the EU
12% would vote to accept the Prime Minister’s Deal
32% would vote to leave with No Deal
What would you want to see from our Deal with the EU?
|A Customs Union and ‘friction-free’ trade with EU||49%||98%||91%||73%|
|Full Single Market Access|
|Membership of EU Free Trade Zone (EEA/EFTA)||33%||92%||84%||62%|
|A soft border in Northern Ireland and the Republic||79%||95%||93%||87%|
|Limits on EU citizens travelling to UK & limits for UK citizens travelling to EU|| |
* The ‘Balanced Total’ assumes that responses were completed by voters in the same proportions in which they voted for Leave or Remain in the referendum.
ie the Leave votes have been weighted by 50.5% and the Remain votes by 49.5%
An overwhelming majority of both Leave and Remain voters wanted to see us retain the same rights for:
- Health and Safety
- Environmental protections
- Consumer products
Should there be another Vote?
Respondents were not overly enthusiastic about another referendum, as in the previous survey earlier in the year. However a majority of Remain voters and almost half (48%) of all Leave voters did not want us to leave on No Deal without a referendum to confirm it.
Almost all of the Remain voters, together with the Leave voters who had changed their minds (17%) wanted to see an option to remain in the EU on the ballot paper.
|Referendum before any deal with the EU?||17%||64%||57%||40%|
|Referendum before leaving with No Deal?||48%||58%||57%||53%|
|Should voters have option to Remain in EU||17%||95%||84%||56%|
Ruth George MP