Ruth George MP for High Peak: Results of the Survey of Brexit Deal Options

1,306 High Peak residents completed the survey online and in paper form between 28th January and 8th May 2018.  Names and postcodes were provided and checked.

Age Profile of Respondents: this is close to typical for an age profile of people who vote in elections, although over 65’s are slightly under-represented, probably as most surveys (around 75%) were completed online.

 

Leavers %

Remainers %

Overall %

17 and under

0 0.5 0.4

18-30

4.4 4.6

4.6

31-45 8.0 17.4

15.6

46-65 49.0 44.4

45.3

Over 65 38.6 33.0 34.1

 

How did you vote in the 2016 Referendum?

78.2% voted Remain

18.9% voted Leave

2.9% did not vote (Usually as they had been under 18 at the time)

 

How would you vote today if the vote was held again?

79.7% would vote Remain

19.8% would vote Leave

0.6% wouldn’t vote

 

How have votes changed?

1.2% of Leave voters in 2016 would now vote Remain

0.9% of Remain voters in 2016 would now vote Leave

Of those who did not vote in 2016, 68% would vote Remain and 16% would vote Leave

Overall, this represents a 1.5% swing from Leave to Remain in High Peak.

However, the question was about a re-run of the EU Referendum, and is not an option under consideration.

 Balancing Results

In 2016, 50.5% of High Peak voted to leave the EU whereas 49.5% voted to remain.

A far higher proportion of Remain voters completed the survey than Leave voters, largely as there appeared to be more concern about the details of the Brexit deal among Remain voters, who shared the survey more widely than Leave voters.

Most responses are analysed separately for Leave and Remain supporters, so the representativeness of the sample is not a problem, but for those where responses are combined I have weighted the answers for the proportions voting Leave and Remain in the referendum, to produce a ‘Balanced Total’ as is usual in polling analysis.

Which issues were most important to Leave voters?

  1. ‘Take back control’ of our law making:
    87.4% = Very important, 9.4% = Important
  1. Ensure EU courts could not override UK courts:
    83.5% = Very important, 11.4% = Important
  1. Allow Government to support British business over foreign business:
    71.7% = Very important, 18.9% = Important
  2. Save money by not paying EU membership:
    53.1% = Very important, 27.5% = Important
  1. Provide extra funds for the NHS:
    42.4% = Very important, 27.2% = Important (13.3% = Neutral, 8.9% = Not at all important)
  1. Restrict EU citizens’ access to the UK and UK citizens’ access to EU countries:
    31.8% = Very important, 26.8% = Important (15.9% = Neutral, 17.8% = ‘Not at all important’)

 

Which issues were most important to Remain voters?

  1. Preserve collaboration on scientific research and between universities:
    76.5% = Very important, 18.6% = Important
  1. Safeguard the economy and jobs reliant on EU trade:
    71.9% = Very important, 25.4% = Important
  1. Safeguard ‘Free Movement’ and open borders for UK and EU citizens:
    70% = Very important, 23.8% = Important (2.2% = Neutral, 0.7% = Not at all important)
  1. Preserve the security and police co-operation between the EU and UK:
    67.1% = Very important. 26.2% = important
  1. Retain tariff-free access to EU markets:
    64.9% = Very important, 30.5% = Important
  1. Preserve the regulations that create a level playing-field amongst EU businesses:
    56.6% = Very important, 33.7% = Important

 

Who would you prefer to confirm the final deal with the EU?

 

Leavers % Remainers % Overall Total % Balanced Total* %

Parliament

37.2 47.3 45.6%

42.2%

The Prime Minister

39.1 0.3 7.1%

37.9%

The People 23.7 52.4 47.3%

19.9%

 

What sort of relationship with EU Markets would you prefer?

  Leavers % Remainers % Overall Total % Balanced Total*%
Full Single Market Access

 

16.2

92.8 86.3%

54.1%

Membership of EU Free Trade Zone (EEA/EFTA)

41.9

6.8 15.3%

24.6%

No Single Market Access

 

41.9

0.4 9.5%

21.3%

 

What sort of relationship would you prefer for our law and the courts?

  Leavers % Remainers % Overall Total% Balanced Total*%

Integration of EU courts as it is today

0.4 82.5 73.4

41.0%

Influence from EU courts in certain industries

12.6

16.0 16.9

14.3%

Total supremacy of UK courts

87.0

1.5 20.4

44.7%

 

 What sort of relationship would you prefer on Immigration?

  Leavers % Remainers % Overall Total% Balanced Total*%

Free movement as it stands

13.5 92.4 85.4

52.6%

Special visas required

 

31.5

5.3 11.6

18.5%

A more vigorous visa system

55.0

2.3 14.0

28.9%

 * The ‘Balanced Total’ assumes that responses were completed by voters in the same proportions in which they voted for Leave or Remain in the referendum.  ie the Leave votes have been weighted by 50.5% and the Remain votes by 49.5%

How likely would you be to accept compromise to safeguard jobs in the UK?

Very likely / Likely

to compromise

Very unlikely / unlikely

to compromise

Difference:

Likelihood

Access to EU Markets

Leave voters

11% / 31.9% = 42.9%

17.2% / 30.1% = 47.2%

– 4.3%

Remain voters

31.9% / 23.3% = 55.2% 13.6% / 20.6% = 34.2%

+ 21.0%

Making law & the courts

Leave voters

10.0% / 9.4% = 19.4% 33.3% / 42.1% = 75.4%

– 56%

Remain voters

26.4% / 29.8% = 56.2% 13.1% / 21.0% = 34.1%

+ 22.1%

Immigration
Leave voters

7.5% / 11.9% = 19.4%

33.3% / 40.2% = 73.5%

– 54.1%

Remain voters

28% / 27% = 55.0%

13.4% / 21% = 34.4%

+ 20.6%

 

If the UK cannot reach a deal with the EU, what should happen?

  Leavers % Remainers % Overall Total % Balanced Total %
Join the EU Free Trade Zone

23.1

10.7 14.4

17.0

Stay in the European Union

0

88.4 72.7

43.7

Leave with no deal

 

76.9

0.9 16.6

39.3